Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 18:15 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T16:40:20.479Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:45:42.582Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:56:24.544Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:02:27.742Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:11:33.022Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:17:53.836Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:25:26.676Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:32:31.404Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:38:33.049Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:43:49.304Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:48:57.390Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:54:54.414Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:00:28.558Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:12:35.022Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:15:24.424Z | 1.2% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Trump is scheduled to hold a cabinet meeting on July 31, 2026 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ytbAVpDBXs&t=62s). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says the listed term during the cabinet meeting scheduled for July 31, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's cabinet meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
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