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Politics · POLYMARKET · LIVE
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends: Nov 7, 2028, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 14:57 UTC
VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
POLYMARKET YES 0.4%MARX FAIR YES -
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 28, 02:00 PMJul 28, 02:14 PMJul 28, 02:28 PMJul 28, 02:43 PMJul 28, 02:57 PM UTC
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T14:00:13.562Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:05:19.453Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:10:23.150Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:15:27.961Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:20:29.677Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:25:35.451Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:30:39.201Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:35:44.750Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:40:46.779Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:45:49.395Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:50:54.481Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:55:59.745Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:57:32.991Z | 0.4% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.