Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 19:40 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T03:47:20.198Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:18:05.945Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:49:31.360Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:23:14.122Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:55:03.103Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:27:40.910Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:59:01.340Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:38:22.548Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:11:31.815Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:43:51.632Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:17:15.725Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T09:48:35.678Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:20:05.685Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T10:52:28.090Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:24:29.825Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T11:57:06.158Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:32:48.797Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:05:15.200Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:38:27.433Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:05:23.633Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:37:49.674Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:13:38.414Z | 14.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:45:30.234Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T16:38:09.729Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:18:58.788Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T17:54:37.422Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T18:32:24.963Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:03:14.979Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:39:21.729Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:40:09.187Z | 13.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.