Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 14:50 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 12:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YELLOW SUBMARINE probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T09:18:39.345Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:24:31.211Z | 14.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:30:26.399Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:36:01.250Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:41:56.011Z | 6.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:47:04.314Z | 6.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:55:30.852Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:01:38.121Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:10:14.075Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:15:40.910Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:27:06.631Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:32:53.010Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:41:06.097Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:47:14.813Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:55:46.882Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:00:52.352Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:10:02.115Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:16:40.820Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:23:32.122Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:28:50.884Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:35:34.009Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:40:44.087Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:46:05.400Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:53:32.842Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:58:59.235Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T12:04:27.771Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T12:14:29.824Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T12:14:31.280Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Winners match between Yellow Submarine and Vici Gaming in the Games of the Future Group A, initially scheduled for August 1 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win Game 1 against Vici Gaming. This market will resolve to "Vici Gaming" if Vici Gaming win Game 1 against Yellow Submarine. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.