Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends: Oct 5, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 08:25 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T03:49:30.504Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:56:45.560Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:06:33.734Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:21:08.662Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:34:54.240Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:40:02.437Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:53:32.516Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:04:28.464Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:11:19.418Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:25:16.459Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:30:37.412Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:35:49.847Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:48:01.663Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:56:02.827Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:01:32.621Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:19:33.283Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:27:08.070Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:37:07.218Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:09.704Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:56:24.667Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:02:05.023Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:18:57.979Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:25:09.678Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:31:00.026Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:49:58.940Z | 0.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:55:12.413Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:00:24.342Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:16:00.586Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:25:14.441Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:25:21.610Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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