Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?
Ends: Jul 29, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 07:36 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T03:00:42.581Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:09:40.905Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:14:38.902Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:24:38.947Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:29:42.137Z | 44.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:39:41.152Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:49:16.722Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:52:42.557Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:05:40.264Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:09:38.707Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:21:38.761Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:29:38.946Z | 44.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:42:47.229Z | 49.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:54:39.735Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:04:41.186Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:16:40.986Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:25:40.672Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:29:38.982Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:42:50.922Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:54:56.346Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:02:44.077Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:10:45.245Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:19:38.932Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:29:41.813Z | 72.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:39:46.286Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:44:40.443Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:58:05.351Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:09:46.409Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:35:11.544Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:36:20.562Z | 74.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.