Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T03:57:07.066Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:12:22.322Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:27:32.307Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:47:52.055Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:03:06.899Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:18:47.200Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:34:01.884Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:54:33.831Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:09:47.145Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:25:02.377Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:40:32.704Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:00:52.489Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:16:12.297Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:31:27.299Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:46:42.258Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:07:02.326Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:22:17.140Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:37:32.514Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:52:47.250Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:13:07.179Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:28:34.254Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:44:27.825Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:59:42.721Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:20:07.547Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:35:27.497Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:52.503Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:06:28.071Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:26:57.538Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:17.684Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:33.355Z | 37.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.