Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 20:10 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 17:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
ASTRALIS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T14:55:53.005Z | 99.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:01:02.441Z | 99.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:07:42.652Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:13:22.062Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:19:07.811Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:26:03.632Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:31:39.804Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:37:10.020Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:43:05.131Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:48:32.213Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:54:29.910Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:59:56.849Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:06:07.344Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:12:19.565Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:17:34.304Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:23:19.300Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:29:04.804Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:34:17.069Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:40:21.701Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:46:58.502Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:57:19.558Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:02:54.754Z | 100.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Astralis and MOUZ in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 1 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 1 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 1 against Astralis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.