Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 21:30 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 07:54 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
PAIN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T06:27:14.270Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:37:02.714Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:42:25.375Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:09.706Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:54:23.356Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:18:52.295Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:25:05.860Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:31:00.280Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:42:18.561Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:48:38.621Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:55:04.481Z | 46.5% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between paiN and Astralis in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 30 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win Map 1 against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 1 against paiN. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.