Counter-Strike: Lavked vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 20:45 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 18:51 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LAVKED probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T16:56:38.333Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:02:25.196Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:11:23.138Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:17:44.500Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:25:25.735Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:32:21.500Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:38:21.645Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:43:34.651Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:48:38.838Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:54:41.904Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:59:49.960Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:07:10.698Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:12:30.696Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:19:00.832Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:24:37.762Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:33:01.376Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:39:38.350Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:44:45.581Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:50:00.148Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between Lavked and megoshort in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 31 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Lavked" if Lavked win Map 2 against megoshort. This market will resolve to "megoshort" if megoshort win Map 2 against Lavked. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.