Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 06:50 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 03:54 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
MARSBORNE probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T01:56:02.096Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:01:15.165Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:06:26.386Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:14:14.793Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:24:25.766Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:29:57.534Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:36:07.705Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:41:41.619Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:47:00.612Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:55:17.529Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:00:46.388Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:07:42.758Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:14:19.724Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:19:44.877Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:26:13.857Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:35:21.407Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:41:30.513Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:46:40.838Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:54:12.129Z | 100.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Marsborne and regain in the StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 31 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Marsborne" if Marsborne win Map 1 against regain. This market will resolve to "regain" if regain win Map 1 against Marsborne. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.