Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Butterfly - Map 2 Winner
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 17:45 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 15:50 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
1WIN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T14:09:00.537Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:14:18.037Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:19:19.715Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:24:24.520Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:29:54.338Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:34:56.763Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:40:24.924Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:45:29.907Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:52:11.820Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:37:11.295Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:42:26.420Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T15:47:31.014Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 16 match between 1WIN and Butterfly in the CCT Europe Series #5 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 30 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "1WIN" if 1WIN win Map 2 against Butterfly. This market will resolve to "Butterfly" if Butterfly win Map 2 against 1WIN. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.