Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T08:25:37.258Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:35:47.253Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:40:52.214Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:51:02.151Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:56:07.103Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:01:12.586Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:11:22.258Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:16:27.222Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:26:37.295Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:31:42.654Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:41:52.383Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:46:57.388Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:57:07.970Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:02:12.314Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:12:22.364Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:17:27.373Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:22:32.805Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:32:42.711Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:37:58.503Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:48:07.794Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:53:12.516Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:03:27.883Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:09:03.663Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:19:12.500Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:24:17.501Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:34:28.696Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:39:51.018Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:49:57.652Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:55:03.097Z | 0.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:11.179Z | 0.7% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.