Canadian Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Tomas Barrios
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 19:38 UTCResult: ALEKSANDAR VUKICResolved: Aug 1, 2026, 19:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
ALEKSANDAR VUKIC probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T16:57:21.147Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:02:56.071Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:08:16.890Z | 51.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:13:58.443Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:19:08.490Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:26:13.212Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:31:26.463Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:38:14.867Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:43:20.568Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:48:45.094Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:54:59.136Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:00:43.636Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:07:00.736Z | 81.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:12:26.481Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:18:18.361Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:25:37.042Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:31:36.655Z | 88.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:39:15.028Z | 98.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:45:13.009Z | 98.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:51:12.419Z | 99.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:57:31.012Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:03:52.817Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:12:20.760Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:18:17.952Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:25:33.754Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:32:47.180Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T19:38:39.807Z | 100.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Tomas Barrios in the Canadian Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Vukic' if Aleksandar Vukic advances against Tomas Barrios. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Barrios' if Tomas Barrios advances against Aleksandar Vukic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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