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Sports · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Will Real Madrid win on 2026-08-01?

Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 14:16 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 53.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Aug 01, 03:54 AMAug 01, 06:29 AMAug 01, 09:05 AMAug 01, 11:40 AMAug 01, 02:16 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T11:18:01.481Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:23:31.658Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:28:44.467Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:35:21.855Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:40:36.471Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:46:03.406Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:51:59.466Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T11:57:25.204Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T12:02:30.822Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T12:14:20.239Z51.5%-
2026-08-01T12:21:15.070Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T12:28:57.294Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T12:34:04.238Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T12:40:19.147Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T12:45:39.033Z53.5%-
2026-08-01T12:51:09.674Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T12:57:05.150Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:02:30.122Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:11:16.065Z50.5%-
2026-08-01T13:16:38.334Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:24:53.460Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:30:01.064Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:35:25.189Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:40:57.203Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:46:06.707Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:52:56.628Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T13:58:16.357Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T14:03:35.827Z52.5%-
2026-08-01T14:09:56.206Z53.5%-
2026-08-01T14:16:22.054Z53.5%-

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 1, 2026 If Real Madrid wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market will settle based on the final score of the match, regardless of format (e.g. two halves totaling 90 minutes plus stoppage time, or four periods totaling 120 minutes). The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.