Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends: Apr 30, 2027, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 13:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T08:27:30.943Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T08:37:53.786Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:54:22.454Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:04:32.281Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:09:32.695Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:19:42.240Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:24:48.058Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:34:57.255Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:07.149Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:18.867Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:32.620Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:05:33.572Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:15:42.552Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:20:47.470Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:30:57.504Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:50.472Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:52.287Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:02.365Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:04.669Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:12:10.292Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:17:12.410Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:27:22.291Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:37:35.362Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:42:39.209Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:52.471Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:07.569Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:08:19.097Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:13:22.785Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:24:12.572Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:29:06.306Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.