Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 06:56 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T02:48:48.212Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:56:47.884Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:02:43.802Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:13:42.647Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:18:50.568Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:23:46.955Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:36:43.508Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:50:13.817Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:07:47.248Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:14:46.893Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:26:43.970Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:44:44.863Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:51:01.997Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:56:42.817Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:01:44.372Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:07:48.666Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:16:53.324Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:25:43.679Z | 48.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:31:43.461Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:38:00.836Z | 59.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:44:42.590Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:49:46.299Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:56:45.189Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:09:52.500Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:24:46.986Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:33:50.585Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:39:44.909Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:44:42.799Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:55:42.618Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:56:22.809Z | 51.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.